GETTING TO A BASELINE FOR THE FUTURE
Here’s one baseline for the world we are in. There are many. They are very likely to impact where your business is headed and will certainly inform where it needs to navigate.
DYNAMICS, CONTEXT DEVELOPMENT & FUTURE SCENARIO EXPLORATION
In 10 years, 7 billion people will be seamlessly connected to each other and the entire knowledge of humanity. Q. What do we need to do now to take advantage of that?
Amazon is working on a version of its Alexa assistant that can understand emotions. Q. Armed with this technology (that can already call up our website) how should we design things differently?
A machine is predicted to join a corporate board of directors within 10 years. Q. How likely are we to embrace that idea and does the idea encourage or alarm us?
Gymnasts in the next Olympics could be judged not by people but by robots that instantaneously scan, plot and analyze the arc of the athlete. Q. It’s therefore totally likely that we can exploit that technology inside our business - how could/would we?
Children born today will very probably not learn to drive, nor visit a physician for a checkup when they are 20. Q. As they may we’ll be our consumers in the future are we prepared or capable of exploiting that notion? If so when should we start planning?
The concept of ‘going online’ will cease to exist, as we’ll be permanently and invisibly connected to an internet. This concept is an ever enveloping and ever-present fabric in our lives already. Q. Can we exploit this reality for the betterment of our customers and the wider society?
Our bodies will become our passwords, with biometric recognition ‘announcing’ our entrance to many environments. Q. Can we imagine new ways to develop our solutions that take advantage of these more seamless opportunities?
We’ll be surrounded by a cloud of data that can know our every preference, habit and behavior, and that tracks and scores aspects of our daily lives. Q. Can we imagine the future this proposes and develop solutions that are ethically and morally authentic and not exploitative or dystopian?
Distributed ledger software, or blockchain, will enable trusted transactions or contracts without any intermediary. Q. What are we doing to build these concepts into our future? Do we have the skills and capabilities or even interest in these ideas? Are we prepared to invest in these ideas? For how long?
Virtual and augmented reality will enable digital experiences that the brain can’t distinguish from real ones, for the price of an iPhone. Q. Do we have the appetite to engage in the creativity it will take to build applications of this nature in our own business?
Genomics, biosensing and bioinformatics will yield near-perfect information about our health. Q. Are there opportunities in our business that we can start thinking about that will position is to be involved constructively in this new world?
BUSINESS DYNAMICS WILL EMBRACE THE MAJOR TRENDS OVER 5-10 YEARS
Automation is expected to rapidly erode job security for entire categories of workers.
I’ve seen reports that expect automation to take nearly 50 percent of jobs and wreak havoc on value chains.
Retail businesses expect to see their physical business models disrupted by seismic shifts through digital and virtual technologies.
These technologies completely change what it means to shop - full stop.
Increasing transparency totally removes the opacity that exists in (siloed) vertically integrated businesses.
Scale-driven manufacturers will see 3D printing create decentralized and fragmented production, making many traditional factories obsolete.
Virtually no traditional business will be spared by exponentially accelerating change.
There’s never been such a high degree of possibility for innovation.
There’s significant opportunities for those who can envisage new solutions. For example blockchain applications will allow the goods we own to manage themselves to our budgets and preferences, ordering their own upgrades and repairs in advance.
Technologies are continuously improving our ability to predict future well-being, monitoring and intervening to improve it by the minute.
EMERGING THEMES THAT NEED TACKLING
People & Caring - Whether it’s leaders caring about the people or their businesses futures and the people caring about their work. How do we feel?
Understanding & The Marketplace - The business of the future is only about the meaning, the making and the managing. But first it’s the meaning and that’s marketing. Ignore excellence in that and die. Competitors are coming thick and fast and far more automated. So do we know where from - what’s our response and are we prepared to make significant investment in new knowledge and capability? Do we study the trends and markets in ways that inform our future product development and positioning? (((What is the businesses reaction to these trends in competition))) Can we predict the impact on the business of potential market disruption and innovation?
Partnerships & The Overall System - The future demands connection and meaningful engagement with others to deliver. Connecting with others to deliver overall capabilities is a strategy - what is our strategy?
Intelligent (enlightened) Investment - A major drawback for future strategy is the inability to shift investment quickly. And the investment is often far too narrow. The conversation quickly turns to risk and business cases and then there’s the mentality to overcome even when the case is made. The subtlety of this mindset problem shows up in tiny and often indiscernible ways. And then bang - the Business is out of the game!
Business as a Force for Good - we probably can’t use that phrase as that is the B Corps mission. But I think we need to bring in the importance of playing a role in communities, in society and environment. If not we risk tipping everything towards the more self serving ambitions, albeit more future proofed from a tech perspective
